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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd